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Nantes U19 vs København U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Nantes U19
Nantes U19advanced
Pens
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
København U19
København U19
3/12/2024UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Quarter-finalsStade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nantes U1941%
×Draw23%
København U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantes U19
1.66
København U19
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Nantes U19
2.20
København U19
2.11

allows per match

Nantes U19
1.00
København U19
1.11

finishing

Nantes U19+0.00on par
København U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes U19 ↓

København U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nantes U19 or draw
64%
Nantes U19 or København U19
77%
Draw or København U19
59%

Winning margin

Nantes U19 wins by 2+
21%
København U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nantes U19 1+ goals
81%
Nantes U19 2+ goals
49%
Nantes U19 3+ goals
23%
København U19 1+ goals
79%
København U19 2+ goals
46%
København U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nantes U19 (draw refunded)
53%
København U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

København U19 away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes U19 attack 2.20 + København U19 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.66

København U19 attack 2.11 + Nantes U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nantes U19 scores more
41%
level
23%
København U19 scores more
36%

Nantes U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nantes U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantes U19 vs København U19

Nantes U19 and København U19 drew 3-3 in UEFA Youth League on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Nantes.