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Nantes II vs La Châtaigneraie — League #462 2026

Nantes II
Nantes II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Châtaigneraie
La Châtaigneraie
8/23/2025League #462League #462 · Group B - 1Stade Marcel-Saupin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nantes II82%
×Draw11%
La Châtaigneraie7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantes II
3.17
La Châtaigneraie
0.83

Nantes II creates 282% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nantes II
3.00
La Châtaigneraie
1.00

allows per match

Nantes II
0.67
La Châtaigneraie
3.33

finishing

Nantes II+0.00on par
La Châtaigneraie+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes II ↓

La Châtaigneraie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Nantes II or draw
93%
Nantes II or La Châtaigneraie
89%
Draw or La Châtaigneraie
18%

Winning margin

Nantes II wins by 2+
63%
La Châtaigneraie wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nantes II 1+ goals
96%
Nantes II 2+ goals
82%
Nantes II 3+ goals
60%
La Châtaigneraie 1+ goals
56%
La Châtaigneraie 2+ goals
20%
La Châtaigneraie 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nantes II (draw refunded)
92%
La Châtaigneraie (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

La Châtaigneraie away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes II attack 3.00 + La Châtaigneraie defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

La Châtaigneraie attack 1.00 + Nantes II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Nantes II scores more
82%
level
11%
La Châtaigneraie scores more
7%

Nantes II at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Nantes II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantes II vs La Châtaigneraie

Nantes II beat La Châtaigneraie 2-1 in League #462 on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Marcel-Saupin in Nantes.