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Nanjing City vs Yunnan Yukun — League One 2026

Nanjing City
Nanjing City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
7/13/2024League OneLeague One · Round 17Wutaishan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nanjing City30%
×Draw25%
Yunnan Yukun45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nanjing City
1.19
Yunnan Yukun
1.52

Yunnan Yukun creates 28% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nanjing City
1.38
Yunnan Yukun
2.00

allows per match

Nanjing City
1.05
Yunnan Yukun
1.00

finishing

Nanjing City+0.00on par
Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nanjing City ↓

Yunnan Yukun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nanjing City or draw
55%
Nanjing City or Yunnan Yukun
75%
Draw or Yunnan Yukun
70%

Winning margin

Nanjing City wins by 2+
12%
Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nanjing City 1+ goals
70%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
33%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
12%
Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
78%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
45%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nanjing City (draw refunded)
40%
Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nanjing City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nanjing City attack 1.38 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Yunnan Yukun attack 2.00 + Nanjing City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nanjing City scores more
30%
level
25%
Yunnan Yukun scores more
45%

Yunnan Yukun at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nanjing City vs Yunnan Yukun

Yunnan Yukun beat Nanjing City 2-0 in League One on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Wutaishan Stadium in Nanjing.