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Nanjing City vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Nanjing City
Nanjing City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
9/29/2022League OneLeague One · Round 24Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Nanjing City59%
×Draw23%
Xinjiang Tianshan18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nanjing City
1.76
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.84

Nanjing City creates 110% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 72 away

creates per match

Nanjing City
1.38
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Nanjing City
1.05
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Nanjing City+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nanjing City ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nanjing City or draw
82%
Nanjing City or Xinjiang Tianshan
77%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
41%

Winning margin

Nanjing City wins by 2+
34%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nanjing City 1+ goals
83%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
52%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
26%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
57%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
21%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nanjing City (draw refunded)
77%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nanjing City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nanjing City attack 1.38 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.76

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Nanjing City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nanjing City scores more
59%
level
23%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
18%

Nanjing City at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nanjing City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Nanjing City 2–1 Xinjiang Tianshan

Nanjing City beat Xinjiang Tianshan 2-1 in League One on September 29, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2 in Nanjing.