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Nanjing City vs Shanghai Jiading — League One 2026

Nanjing City
Nanjing City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
7/6/2024League OneLeague One · Round 16Wutaishan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Nanjing City52%
×Draw27%
Shanghai Jiading21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nanjing City
1.45
Shanghai Jiading
0.81

Nanjing City creates 79% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 62 away

creates per match

Nanjing City
1.38
Shanghai Jiading
0.58

allows per match

Nanjing City
1.05
Shanghai Jiading
1.52

finishing

Nanjing City+0.00on par
Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nanjing City ↓

Shanghai Jiading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nanjing City or draw
79%
Nanjing City or Shanghai Jiading
73%
Draw or Shanghai Jiading
48%

Winning margin

Nanjing City wins by 2+
26%
Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nanjing City 1+ goals
77%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
42%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
18%
Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
56%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
19%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nanjing City (draw refunded)
71%
Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nanjing City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nanjing City attack 1.38 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.58 + Nanjing City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nanjing City scores more
52%
level
27%
Shanghai Jiading scores more
21%

Nanjing City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nanjing City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nanjing City vs Shanghai Jiading

Nanjing City and Shanghai Jiading drew 0-0 in League One on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Wutaishan Stadium in Nanjing.