Nanjing City vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 87+ matches
Nanjing City45%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Nanjing City creates 31% more chances
Season form · 87 home / 116 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Nanjing City ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Nanjing City at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 87 matches
Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 116 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Nanjing City attack 1.37 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41
Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.10 + Nanjing City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Nanjing City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Nanjing City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Guangzhou E-Power
Shaanxi Union
Ningbo Professional
Yanbian Longding
Wuxi Wugou
Guangxi Hengchen
Changchun Yatai
Nantong ZhiyunNanjing City
Dalian Huayi
Shenzhen Juniors
Meizhou Kejia
Suzhou Dongwu
Hebei KungfuHeilongjiang Lava Spring
Dongguan UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Nanjing City host Heilongjiang Lava Spring on Saturday, 6 April 2024 at 11:30. The match is part of the League One 2026/2027 season.
League One: Nanjing City 3–2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Nanjing City beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3-2 in League One on April 6, 2024.
Goals: Zhu Qiwen (15'), Ma Yujun (43'), Í. Montaño (62', 88' o.g.), K. Onuegbu (90+7').
The match was played at Wutaishan Stadium in Nanjing.