Nanjing City 4–1 Guangxi Baoyun: Result & Stats

Nanjing City

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Guangxi Baoyun

Yu Menghui 48'

Jefferson Nem 19'

Moresche 18', 6'

Giovanny 75'

10/20/2024

League One · Round 28Wutaishan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nanjing City45%

×Draw27%

Guangxi Baoyun28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nanjing CityExpected goals in this matchGuangxi Baoyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.04

Nanjing City

1.39

Guangxi Baoyun

1.04

Nanjing City creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

1.41

creates per match

0.97

1.11

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Nanjing City

1.41

Guangxi Baoyun

0.97

allows per match

Nanjing City

1.11

Guangxi Baoyun

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nanjing City+0.00on par

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nanjing City ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nanjing City or draw

72%

Nanjing City or Guangxi Baoyun

73%

Draw or Guangxi Baoyun

55%

Winning margin

Nanjing City wins by 2+

21%

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nanjing City 1+ goals

75%

Nanjing City 2+ goals

40%

Nanjing City 3+ goals

16%

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals

65%

Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals

28%

Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nanjing City (draw refunded)

61%

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nanjing City at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nanjing City attack 1.41 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.97 + Nanjing City defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nanjing City scores more

45%

level

27%

Guangxi Baoyun scores more

28%

Nanjing City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nanjing City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Moresche↳ Shewketjan Tayir

18'

Moresche↳ Yang He

19'

Jefferson Nem↳ Moresche

40'

Yu Menghui← Ling Jie

42'

Tayir Shewketjan

46'

Liu Jiahui← Zhu Qiwen

46'

Bai Jiajun← Yi Xianlong

46'

Zhang Wentao← Wang Huapeng

46'

G. Rodrigues← Ye Chongqiu

48'

60'

64'

75'

85'

85'

90+1'

90+1'

Gong Hankui← Jefferson Nem

90+1'

Nan Xiaoheng← Yang He

Nanjing

Guangxi

13

Yifan

33

▼

Chongqiu

29

Pengfei

5

▼

Mingfei

36

A

Jiarun

2

▼

Huapeng

11

Rentian

7

Hevel

3

▼

Xianlong

37

⚽

Giovanny

44

▼

21

45

33

30

A

Tayir

11

⚽2A

▼

Moresche

28

▼

Jie

31

▼

Qiwen

20

Ogbu

9

A

▼

He

7

⚽

▼

Nem

29

Honglin

Manager: Xiaofeng Zhang

40'▲Yu Menghui←▼Ling Jie

46'▲Liu Jiahui←▼Zhu Qiwen

85'▲Wang Hao←▼Moresche

90+1'▲Gong Hankui←▼Jefferson Nem

90+1'▲Nan Xiaoheng←▼Yang He

Nanjing City substitutes

39Menghui26Jiahui27Hao16Hankui18Xiaoheng24Yu17Zhen38Zhenyu42Chenglong8Yuren2Dujardin23Jinlin

Manager: Wang Xiao

46'▲Bai Jiajun←▼Yi Xianlong

46'▲Zhang Wentao←▼Wang Huapeng

46'▲G. Rodrigues←▼Ye Chongqiu

64'▲Liu Junhan←▼Fan Chao

85'▲Tao Yuan←▼Hu Mingfei

Guangxi Baoyun substitutes

23Jiajun6Wentao9Rodrigues32Junhan20Yuan12Xin26Guanjian28Xiangshuo22Lipan