Nania 0–0 Port City: Result & Stats

Nania

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Port City

1/17/2026

Division One League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nania24%

×Draw34%

Port City41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaniaExpected goals in this matchPort City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

0.97

Nania

0.67

Port City

0.97

Port City creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.80

creates per match

1.33

0.60

allows per match

0.53

creates per match

Nania

0.80

Port City

1.33

allows per match

Nania

0.60

Port City

0.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nania+0.00on par

Port City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nania ↓

Port City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–119%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Nania or draw

59%

Nania or Port City

66%

Draw or Port City

76%

Winning margin

Nania wins by 2+

7%

Port City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nania 1+ goals

49%

Nania 2+ goals

15%

Nania 3+ goals

3%

Port City 1+ goals

62%

Port City 2+ goals

25%

Port City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nania (draw refunded)

37%

Port City (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nania at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Port City away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nania attack 0.80 + Port City defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.67

Port City attack 1.33 + Nania defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nania scores more

24%

level

34%

Port City scores more

41%

Port City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff