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Nania vs Home Stars — Division One League 2025

Nania
Nania
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Home Stars
Home Stars
12/13/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nania38%
×Draw36%
Home Stars25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nania
0.86
Home Stars
0.64

Nania creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nania
0.80
Home Stars
0.67

allows per match

Nania
0.60
Home Stars
0.93

finishing

Nania+0.00on par
Home Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nania ↓

Home Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Nania or draw
75%
Nania or Home Stars
64%
Draw or Home Stars
62%

Winning margin

Nania wins by 2+
13%
Home Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nania 1+ goals
58%
Nania 2+ goals
21%
Nania 3+ goals
6%
Home Stars 1+ goals
47%
Home Stars 2+ goals
14%
Home Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nania (draw refunded)
60%
Home Stars (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nania at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Home Stars away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nania attack 0.80 + Home Stars defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Home Stars attack 0.67 + Nania defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nania scores more
38%
level
36%
Home Stars scores more
25%

Nania at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nania vs Home Stars

Nania and Home Stars drew 0-0 in Division One League on December 13, 2025.