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Nania vs Great Olympics — Division One League 2025

Nania
Nania
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Great Olympics
Great Olympics
4/4/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nania37%
×Draw38%
Great Olympics25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nania
0.80
Great Olympics
0.60

Nania creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nania
0.80
Great Olympics
0.60

allows per match

Nania
0.60
Great Olympics
0.80

finishing

Nania+0.00on par
Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Under
  • Under83
  • Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nania ↓

Great Olympics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–025%
0–115%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
75%25%1.5
41%59%2.5
17%83%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Nania or draw
75%
Nania or Great Olympics
62%
Draw or Great Olympics
63%

Winning margin

Nania wins by 2+
12%
Great Olympics wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nania 1+ goals
55%
Nania 2+ goals
19%
Nania 3+ goals
5%
Great Olympics 1+ goals
45%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
12%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nania (draw refunded)
60%
Great Olympics (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nania at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nania attack 0.80 + Great Olympics defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Great Olympics attack 0.60 + Nania defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nania scores more
37%
level
38%
Great Olympics scores more
25%

Nania at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Nania 1–0 Great Olympics

Nania beat Great Olympics 1-0 in Division One League on April 4, 2026.