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Nania vs Great Ambitions — Division One League 2025

Nania
Nania
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Great Ambitions
Great Ambitions
4/25/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nania60%
×Draw25%
Great Ambitions14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nania
1.54
Great Ambitions
0.60

Nania creates 157% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nania
0.80
Great Ambitions
0.60

allows per match

Nania
0.60
Great Ambitions
2.27

finishing

Nania+0.00on par
Great Ambitions+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nania ↓

Great Ambitions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nania or draw
86%
Nania or Great Ambitions
75%
Draw or Great Ambitions
40%

Winning margin

Nania wins by 2+
32%
Great Ambitions wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nania 1+ goals
79%
Nania 2+ goals
45%
Nania 3+ goals
20%
Great Ambitions 1+ goals
45%
Great Ambitions 2+ goals
12%
Great Ambitions 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nania (draw refunded)
81%
Great Ambitions (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nania at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Great Ambitions away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nania attack 0.80 + Great Ambitions defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Great Ambitions attack 0.60 + Nania defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nania scores more
60%
level
25%
Great Ambitions scores more
14%

Nania at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nania vs Great Ambitions

Nania beat Great Ambitions 2-1 in Division One League on April 25, 2026.