Nancy 0–1 Chateauroux: Result & Stats | League #63

Nancy

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chateauroux

B. Youssouf 32' (pen)

3/17/2023

League #63 · Round 25Stade Marcel-Picot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nancy36%

×Draw27%

Chateauroux36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NancyExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

Nancy

1.25

Chateauroux

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.07

creates per match

1.14

1.36

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Nancy

1.07

Chateauroux

1.14

allows per match

Nancy

1.36

Chateauroux

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nancy+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nancy ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nancy or draw

64%

Nancy or Chateauroux

73%

Draw or Chateauroux

64%

Winning margin

Nancy wins by 2+

16%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nancy 1+ goals

71%

Nancy 2+ goals

36%

Nancy 3+ goals

13%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

71%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

36%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nancy (draw refunded)

50%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nancy at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nancy attack 1.07 + Chateauroux defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Chateauroux attack 1.14 + Nancy defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nancy scores more

36%

level

27%

Chateauroux scores more

36%

Nancy at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nancy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

G. Sunu

32'

B. YoussoufPenalty

45'

A. Mbengue

64'

L. Nangis← L. Cissé

64'

B. Mouazan← A. Cropanese

70'

L. Deaux

77'

J. Mexique← G. Sunu

77'

A. Ndour← N. Roux

78'

F. N'Goma← A. Mbengue

82'

L. Pellegrini

86'

M. N'Doye← A. Lefebvre

90+3'

T. Baïch← S. Daham

Nancy

Chateauroux

1

Delecroix

13

▼

Mbengue

19

Sanganté

27

⚽

17

2

6

14

▼

Daham

26

▼

Roux

10

▼

11

16

15

17

21

26

10

▼

Cropanese

12

Aynaoui

9

Robinet

27

▼

Lefebvre

29

▼

Cissé

35

Tayot-Sav

Manager: B. Pedretti

64'▲L. Nangis←▼L. Cissé

64'▲B. Mouazan←▼A. Cropanese

86'▲M. N'Doye←▼A. Lefebvre

Nancy substitutes

8Nangis18Mouazan7N'Doye24Bussmann30Giagnorio

Manager: M. Flachez

77'▲J. Mexique←▼G. Sunu

77'▲A. Ndour←▼N. Roux

78'▲F. N'Goma←▼A. Mbengue

90+3'▲T. Baïch←▼S. Daham

Chateauroux substitutes

8Mexique9Ndour18N'Goma28Baïch33Koembo