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Nancy vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Nancy
Nancy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bastia
Bastia
1/15/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Marcel-Picot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Nancy36%
×Draw28%
Bastia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nancy
1.18
Bastia
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

creates per match

Nancy
1.03
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

Nancy
1.36
Bastia
1.33

finishing

Nancy+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nancy ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nancy or draw
63%
Nancy or Bastia
72%
Draw or Bastia
64%

Winning margin

Nancy wins by 2+
15%
Bastia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nancy 1+ goals
69%
Nancy 2+ goals
33%
Nancy 3+ goals
12%
Bastia 1+ goals
70%
Bastia 2+ goals
34%
Bastia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nancy (draw refunded)
49%
Bastia (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nancy at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.36 · 91 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nancy attack 1.03 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bastia attack 1.03 + Nancy defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nancy scores more
36%
level
28%
Bastia scores more
37%

Bastia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nancy vs Bastia

Nancy beat Bastia 2-1 in Ligue 2 on January 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Marcel-Picot in Tomblaine.