Namyangju 2–0 Seosan Pioneer: Result & Stats

Namyangju

FT

2 – 0

Seosan Pioneer

4/19/2026

K4 League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Namyangju54%

×Draw23%

Seosan Pioneer24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NamyangjuExpected goals in this matchSeosan Pioneer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.15

Namyangju

1.85

Seosan Pioneer

1.15

Namyangju creates 61% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.30

creates per match

1.30

1.00

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Namyangju

1.30

Seosan Pioneer

1.30

allows per match

Namyangju

1.00

Seosan Pioneer

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Namyangju+0.00on par

Seosan Pioneer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namyangju ↓

Seosan Pioneer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Namyangju or draw

76%

Namyangju or Seosan Pioneer

77%

Draw or Seosan Pioneer

46%

Winning margin

Namyangju wins by 2+

30%

Seosan Pioneer wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Namyangju 1+ goals

84%

Namyangju 2+ goals

55%

Namyangju 3+ goals

28%

Seosan Pioneer 1+ goals

68%

Seosan Pioneer 2+ goals

32%

Seosan Pioneer 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Namyangju (draw refunded)

69%

Seosan Pioneer (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namyangju at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Seosan Pioneer away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namyangju attack 1.30 + Seosan Pioneer defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.85

Seosan Pioneer attack 1.30 + Namyangju defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Namyangju scores more

54%

level

23%

Seosan Pioneer scores more

24%

Namyangju at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Namyangju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff