Namyangju 2–3 Pyeongchang United: Result & Stats

Namyangju

FT

2 – 3

Pyeongchang United

6/20/2026

K4 League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Namyangju45%

×Draw26%

Pyeongchang United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NamyangjuExpected goals in this matchPyeongchang United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.13

Namyangju

1.46

Pyeongchang United

1.13

Namyangju creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.30

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Namyangju

1.30

Pyeongchang United

1.25

allows per match

Namyangju

1.00

Pyeongchang United

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Namyangju+0.00on par

Pyeongchang United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namyangju ↓

Pyeongchang United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Namyangju or draw

71%

Namyangju or Pyeongchang United

74%

Draw or Pyeongchang United

55%

Winning margin

Namyangju wins by 2+

22%

Pyeongchang United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Namyangju 1+ goals

77%

Namyangju 2+ goals

43%

Namyangju 3+ goals

18%

Pyeongchang United 1+ goals

68%

Pyeongchang United 2+ goals

31%

Pyeongchang United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Namyangju (draw refunded)

60%

Pyeongchang United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namyangju at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Pyeongchang United away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namyangju attack 1.30 + Pyeongchang United defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Pyeongchang United attack 1.25 + Namyangju defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Namyangju scores more

45%

level

26%

Pyeongchang United scores more

29%

Namyangju at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Namyangju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff