Namyangju 3–3 Jungnang Chorus Mustang

Namyangju

FT

3 – 3

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

4/12/2026

K4 League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Namyangju30%

×Draw25%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NamyangjuExpected goals in this matchJungnang Chorus Mustang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.57

Namyangju

1.22

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.57

Jungnang Chorus Mustang creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.30

creates per match

2.14

1.00

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Namyangju

1.30

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

2.14

allows per match

Namyangju

1.00

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Namyangju+0.00on par

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namyangju ↓

Jungnang Chorus Mustang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Namyangju or draw

55%

Namyangju or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

75%

Draw or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

70%

Winning margin

Namyangju wins by 2+

12%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Namyangju 1+ goals

70%

Namyangju 2+ goals

34%

Namyangju 3+ goals

12%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

79%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

46%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Namyangju (draw refunded)

40%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namyangju at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namyangju attack 1.30 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 2.14 + Namyangju defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Namyangju scores more

30%

level

25%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

45%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jungnang Chorus Mustang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff