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Namyangju vs Jinju Citizen — K4 League 2026

Namyangju
Namyangju
FT
0 – 1
Jinju Citizen
Jinju Citizen
4/25/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Namyangju20%
×Draw23%
Jinju Citizen57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namyangju
0.99
Jinju Citizen
1.83

Jinju Citizen creates 85% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Namyangju
1.30
Jinju Citizen
2.67

allows per match

Namyangju
1.00
Jinju Citizen
0.67

finishing

Namyangju+0.00on par
Jinju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namyangju ↓

Jinju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Namyangju or draw
43%
Namyangju or Jinju Citizen
77%
Draw or Jinju Citizen
80%

Winning margin

Namyangju wins by 2+
7%
Jinju Citizen wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Namyangju 1+ goals
63%
Namyangju 2+ goals
26%
Namyangju 3+ goals
8%
Jinju Citizen 1+ goals
84%
Jinju Citizen 2+ goals
54%
Jinju Citizen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Namyangju (draw refunded)
26%
Jinju Citizen (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namyangju at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Jinju Citizen away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namyangju attack 1.30 + Jinju Citizen defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.99

Jinju Citizen attack 2.67 + Namyangju defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Namyangju scores more
20%
level
23%
Jinju Citizen scores more
57%

Jinju Citizen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jinju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Namyangju vs Jinju Citizen

Jinju Citizen beat Namyangju 1-0 in K4 League on April 25, 2026.