Namyangju 1–1 Geumsan Insam: Result & Stats

Namyangju

FT

1 – 1

Geumsan Insam

5/16/2026

K4 League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Namyangju36%

×Draw25%

Geumsan Insam39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NamyangjuExpected goals in this matchGeumsan Insam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.44

Namyangju

1.37

Geumsan Insam

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.30

creates per match

1.89

1.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Namyangju

1.30

Geumsan Insam

1.89

allows per match

Namyangju

1.00

Geumsan Insam

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Namyangju+0.00on par

Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namyangju ↓

Geumsan Insam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Namyangju or draw

61%

Namyangju or Geumsan Insam

75%

Draw or Geumsan Insam

64%

Winning margin

Namyangju wins by 2+

16%

Geumsan Insam wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Namyangju 1+ goals

75%

Namyangju 2+ goals

40%

Namyangju 3+ goals

16%

Geumsan Insam 1+ goals

76%

Geumsan Insam 2+ goals

42%

Geumsan Insam 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Namyangju (draw refunded)

48%

Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namyangju at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Geumsan Insam away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namyangju attack 1.30 + Geumsan Insam defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

Geumsan Insam attack 1.89 + Namyangju defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Namyangju scores more

36%

level

25%

Geumsan Insam scores more

39%

Geumsan Insam at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff