Namungo 1–2 Tabora United: Result & Stats

Namungo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tabora United

K. S. Haruna 59'

S. Chuku 90+2'

H. Lulihoshi 72'

8/25/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 2Majaliwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Namungo45%

×Draw28%

Tabora United27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NamungoExpected goals in this matchTabora United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.92

Namungo

1.29

Tabora United

0.92

Namungo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Namungo

1.00

Tabora United

0.92

allows per match

Namungo

0.92

Tabora United

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par

Tabora United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

Tabora United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Namungo or draw

73%

Namungo or Tabora United

72%

Draw or Tabora United

55%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+

21%

Tabora United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals

72%

Namungo 2+ goals

37%

Namungo 3+ goals

14%

Tabora United 1+ goals

60%

Tabora United 2+ goals

23%

Tabora United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)

63%

Tabora United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Tabora United away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 1.00 + Tabora United defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tabora United attack 0.92 + Namungo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Namungo scores more

45%

level

28%

Tabora United scores more

27%

Namungo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

K. S. Haruna

72'

H. Lulihoshi

90+2'

S. Chuku

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff