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Namungo vs Ihefu — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Namungo
Namungo
FT
1 – 1
Ihefu
Ihefu
4/8/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 22Majaliwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Namungo50%
×Draw29%
Ihefu21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namungo
1.30
Ihefu
0.72

Namungo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 47 away

creates per match

Namungo
1.13
Ihefu
0.57

allows per match

Namungo
0.88
Ihefu
1.47

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par
Ihefu+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

Ihefu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Namungo or draw
79%
Namungo or Ihefu
71%
Draw or Ihefu
50%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+
24%
Ihefu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals
73%
Namungo 2+ goals
37%
Namungo 3+ goals
14%
Ihefu 1+ goals
51%
Ihefu 2+ goals
16%
Ihefu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)
71%
Ihefu (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 111 matches

Ihefu away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 1.13 + Ihefu defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ihefu attack 0.57 + Namungo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Namungo scores more
50%
level
29%
Ihefu scores more
21%

Namungo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Namungo 1 – 1 Ihefu

Namungo and Ihefu drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 8, 2021.

The match was played at Majaliwa Stadium in Ruangwa.