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Namungo vs Fountain Gate — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Namungo
Namungo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
6/27/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29Majaliwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Namungo53%
×Draw33%
Fountain Gate14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namungo
1.11
Fountain Gate
0.43

Namungo creates 158% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Namungo
0.90
Fountain Gate
0.56

allows per match

Namungo
0.30
Fountain Gate
1.33

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par
Fountain Gate+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

Fountain Gate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Namungo or draw
86%
Namungo or Fountain Gate
67%
Draw or Fountain Gate
47%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+
23%
Fountain Gate wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals
67%
Namungo 2+ goals
30%
Namungo 3+ goals
10%
Fountain Gate 1+ goals
35%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
7%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)
79%
Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Fountain Gate away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 0.90 + Fountain Gate defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Fountain Gate attack 0.56 + Namungo defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Namungo scores more
53%
level
33%
Fountain Gate scores more
14%

Namungo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'
78'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Namungo vs Fountain Gate

Namungo and Fountain Gate drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 27, 2026.

The match was played at Majaliwa Stadium.