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Namungo vs Dodoma Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Namungo
Namungo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
E. Nyoni 55'
P. C. Buswita 44'
A. Otieno 32'
P. P. Kasunda 20'
2/9/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 18Majaliwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Namungo50%
×Draw28%
Dodoma Jiji22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namungo
1.38
Dodoma Jiji
0.82

Namungo creates 68% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 33 away

creates per match

Namungo
1.00
Dodoma Jiji
0.58

allows per match

Namungo
1.06
Dodoma Jiji
1.76

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par
Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

Dodoma Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Namungo or draw
78%
Namungo or Dodoma Jiji
72%
Draw or Dodoma Jiji
50%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+
24%
Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals
75%
Namungo 2+ goals
40%
Namungo 3+ goals
16%
Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
56%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
20%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)
69%
Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Dodoma Jiji away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 1.00 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dodoma Jiji attack 0.58 + Namungo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Namungo scores more
50%
level
28%
Dodoma Jiji scores more
22%

Namungo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
P. P. Kasunda
32'
A. Otieno
44'
P. C. Buswita
55'
E. Nyoni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Namungo 2–2 Dodoma Jiji

Namungo and Dodoma Jiji drew 2-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 9, 2025.

Goals: P. P. Kasunda (20'), A. Otieno (32'), P. C. Buswita (44'), E. Nyoni (55').

The match was played at Majaliwa Stadium in Ruangwa.