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Namungo vs Coastal Union — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Namungo
Namungo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coastal Union
Coastal Union
2/23/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 21Majaliwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Namungo42%
×Draw30%
Coastal Union27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namungo
1.14
Coastal Union
0.86

Namungo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Namungo
1.00
Coastal Union
0.76

allows per match

Namungo
0.96
Coastal Union
1.28

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par
Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

Coastal Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Namungo or draw
73%
Namungo or Coastal Union
70%
Draw or Coastal Union
58%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+
18%
Coastal Union wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals
68%
Namungo 2+ goals
32%
Namungo 3+ goals
11%
Coastal Union 1+ goals
58%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
21%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)
60%
Coastal Union (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 1.00 + Coastal Union defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Coastal Union attack 0.76 + Namungo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Namungo scores more
42%
level
30%
Coastal Union scores more
27%

Namungo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Namungo 0–0 Coastal Union

Namungo and Coastal Union drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Majaliwa Stadium in Ruangwa.