Namlha 0–5 Tensung: Result & Stats | Premier League

Namlha

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Tensung

12/4/2023

Premier League · Round 9RTC Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Namlha28%

×Draw20%

Tensung53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NamlhaExpected goals in this matchTensung

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

2.40

Namlha

1.71

Tensung

2.40

Tensung creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

0.78

creates per match

1.03

3.78

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Namlha

0.78

Tensung

1.03

allows per match

Namlha

3.78

Tensung

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Namlha+0.00on par

Tensung+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namlha ↓

Tensung →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Namlha or draw

47%

Namlha or Tensung

80%

Draw or Tensung

72%

Winning margin

Namlha wins by 2+

13%

Tensung wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Namlha 1+ goals

82%

Namlha 2+ goals

51%

Namlha 3+ goals

24%

Tensung 1+ goals

91%

Tensung 2+ goals

69%

Tensung 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Namlha (draw refunded)

34%

Tensung (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namlha at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Tensung away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namlha attack 0.78 + Tensung defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tensung attack 1.03 + Namlha defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Namlha scores more

28%

level

20%

Tensung scores more

53%

Tensung at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tensung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff