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Namibia vs Mali — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Namibia
Namibia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mali
Mali
1/24/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Stade Laurent Pokou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Namibia19%
×Draw35%
Mali46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namibia
0.53
Mali
1.00

Mali creates 89% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Namibia
0.60
Mali
1.00

allows per match

Namibia
1.00
Mali
0.45

finishing

Namibia+0.00on par
Mali+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namibia ↓

Mali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–122%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Namibia or draw
54%
Namibia or Mali
65%
Draw or Mali
81%

Winning margin

Namibia wins by 2+
4%
Mali wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Namibia 1+ goals
41%
Namibia 2+ goals
10%
Namibia 3+ goals
2%
Mali 1+ goals
63%
Mali 2+ goals
26%
Mali 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Namibia (draw refunded)
29%
Mali (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namibia at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Mali away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namibia attack 0.60 + Mali defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.53

Mali attack 1.00 + Namibia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Namibia scores more
19%
level
35%
Mali scores more
46%

Mali at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Namibia 0–0 Mali

Namibia and Mali drew 0-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Laurent Pokou in San-Pedro.