Námestovo 2–3 Slovan Giraltovce: Result & Stats

Námestovo

FT

2 – 3

Slovan Giraltovce

4/22/2023

3. liga - East · East - 23Štadión MŠK Námestovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Námestovo66%

×Draw20%

Slovan Giraltovce14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NámestovoExpected goals in this matchSlovan Giraltovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.81

Námestovo

2.04

Slovan Giraltovce

0.81

Námestovo creates 152% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

1.73

creates per match

0.50

1.11

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Námestovo

1.73

Slovan Giraltovce

0.50

allows per match

Námestovo

1.11

Slovan Giraltovce

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Námestovo+0.00on par

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Námestovo ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Námestovo or draw

86%

Námestovo or Slovan Giraltovce

80%

Draw or Slovan Giraltovce

34%

Winning margin

Námestovo wins by 2+

41%

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Námestovo 1+ goals

87%

Námestovo 2+ goals

60%

Námestovo 3+ goals

33%

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals

56%

Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals

19%

Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Námestovo (draw refunded)

82%

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Námestovo at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Námestovo attack 1.73 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.04

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Námestovo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Námestovo scores more

66%

level

20%

Slovan Giraltovce scores more

14%

Námestovo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff