Námestovo 2–2 Novohrad Lučenec: Result & Stats

Námestovo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Novohrad Lučenec

10/25/2025

3. liga - Center · Central - 12Štadión MŠK Námestovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Námestovo67%

×Draw18%

Novohrad Lučenec15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NámestovoExpected goals in this matchNovohrad Lučenec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.09

Námestovo

2.49

Novohrad Lučenec

1.09

Námestovo creates 128% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

2.95

creates per match

1.47

0.71

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Námestovo

2.95

Novohrad Lučenec

1.47

allows per match

Námestovo

0.71

Novohrad Lučenec

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Námestovo+0.00on par

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Námestovo ↓

Novohrad Lučenec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Námestovo or draw

85%

Námestovo or Novohrad Lučenec

82%

Draw or Novohrad Lučenec

33%

Winning margin

Námestovo wins by 2+

45%

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Námestovo 1+ goals

92%

Námestovo 2+ goals

71%

Námestovo 3+ goals

45%

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals

66%

Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals

30%

Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Námestovo (draw refunded)

82%

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Námestovo at home — creates 2.95, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Novohrad Lučenec away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Námestovo attack 2.95 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.49

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.47 + Námestovo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Námestovo scores more

67%

level

18%

Novohrad Lučenec scores more

15%

Námestovo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff