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Námestovo vs Liptovská Štiavnica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Námestovo
Námestovo
CANC
15:30
Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
6/20/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 28Štadión MŠK Námestovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Námestovo81%
×Draw12%
Liptovská Štiavnica7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Námestovo
2.91
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.72

Námestovo creates 304% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Námestovo
2.95
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.74

allows per match

Námestovo
0.71
Liptovská Štiavnica
2.87

finishing

Námestovo+0.00on par
Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Námestovo ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Námestovo or draw
93%
Námestovo or Liptovská Štiavnica
88%
Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica
19%

Winning margin

Námestovo wins by 2+
61%
Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Námestovo 1+ goals
94%
Námestovo 2+ goals
78%
Námestovo 3+ goals
54%
Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
51%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
16%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Námestovo (draw refunded)
93%
Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Námestovo at home — creates 2.95, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Námestovo attack 2.95 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.91

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Námestovo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Námestovo scores more
81%
level
12%
Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
7%

Námestovo at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Námestovo host Liptovská Štiavnica

June 20, 2021: Námestovo take on Liptovská Štiavnica in 3. liga - Center. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Námestovo host Liptovská Štiavnica at Štadión MŠK Námestovo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.