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Námestovo vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - Center 2020

Námestovo
Námestovo
CANC
15:30
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
6/5/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 26Štadión MŠK Námestovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Námestovo62%
×Draw20%
Fomat Martin18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Námestovo
2.16
Fomat Martin
1.08

Námestovo creates 100% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 35 away

creates per match

Námestovo
2.95
Fomat Martin
1.46

allows per match

Námestovo
0.71
Fomat Martin
1.37

finishing

Námestovo+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Námestovo ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Námestovo or draw
82%
Námestovo or Fomat Martin
80%
Draw or Fomat Martin
38%

Winning margin

Námestovo wins by 2+
39%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Námestovo 1+ goals
88%
Námestovo 2+ goals
63%
Námestovo 3+ goals
36%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
66%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
29%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Námestovo (draw refunded)
77%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Námestovo at home — creates 2.95, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Námestovo attack 2.95 + Fomat Martin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.16

Fomat Martin attack 1.46 + Námestovo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Námestovo scores more
62%
level
20%
Fomat Martin scores more
18%

Námestovo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Námestovo face Fomat Martin (3. liga - Center)

3. liga - Center returns with Námestovo hosting Fomat Martin. Match starts June 5, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Námestovo host Fomat Martin at Štadión MŠK Námestovo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.