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Námestovo vs Dolný Kubín — 3. liga - East 2020

Námestovo
Námestovo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
9/28/20243. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 9Štadión MŠK Námestovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Námestovo53%
×Draw23%
Dolný Kubín24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Námestovo
1.83
Dolný Kubín
1.16

Námestovo creates 58% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

Námestovo
1.73
Dolný Kubín
1.20

allows per match

Námestovo
1.11
Dolný Kubín
1.93

finishing

Námestovo+0.00on par
Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Námestovo ↓

Dolný Kubín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Námestovo or draw
76%
Námestovo or Dolný Kubín
77%
Draw or Dolný Kubín
47%

Winning margin

Námestovo wins by 2+
30%
Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Námestovo 1+ goals
84%
Námestovo 2+ goals
54%
Námestovo 3+ goals
28%
Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
69%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
32%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Námestovo (draw refunded)
69%
Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Námestovo at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Námestovo attack 1.73 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Dolný Kubín attack 1.20 + Námestovo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Námestovo scores more
53%
level
23%
Dolný Kubín scores more
24%

Námestovo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Námestovo vs Dolný Kubín

Námestovo beat Dolný Kubín 2-1 in 3. liga - East on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Námestovo in Námestovo.