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Námestovo vs Baník Kalinovo — 3. liga - East 2020

Námestovo
Námestovo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
4/5/20253. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 21Štadión MŠK Námestovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Námestovo60%
×Draw21%
Baník Kalinovo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Námestovo
2.10
Baník Kalinovo
1.09

Námestovo creates 93% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Námestovo
1.73
Baník Kalinovo
1.07

allows per match

Námestovo
1.11
Baník Kalinovo
2.48

finishing

Námestovo+0.00on par
Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Námestovo ↓

Baník Kalinovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Námestovo or draw
81%
Námestovo or Baník Kalinovo
79%
Draw or Baník Kalinovo
40%

Winning margin

Námestovo wins by 2+
37%
Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Námestovo 1+ goals
88%
Námestovo 2+ goals
62%
Námestovo 3+ goals
35%
Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
66%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
30%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Námestovo (draw refunded)
76%
Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Námestovo at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Baník Kalinovo away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.48 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Námestovo attack 1.73 + Baník Kalinovo defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.10

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.07 + Námestovo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Námestovo scores more
60%
level
21%
Baník Kalinovo scores more
19%

Námestovo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Námestovo 4–1 Baník Kalinovo

Námestovo beat Baník Kalinovo 4-1 in 3. liga - East on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Námestovo in Námestovo.