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Namdhari vs TRAU — I-League 2019

Namdhari
Namdhari
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
TRAU
TRAU
3/12/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 21Namdhari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Namdhari46%
×Draw23%
TRAU31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namdhari
1.74
TRAU
1.39

Namdhari creates 25% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 44 away

creates per match

Namdhari
1.32
TRAU
1.27

allows per match

Namdhari
1.50
TRAU
2.16

finishing

Namdhari+0.00on par
TRAU+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namdhari ↓

TRAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Namdhari or draw
69%
Namdhari or TRAU
77%
Draw or TRAU
54%

Winning margin

Namdhari wins by 2+
24%
TRAU wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Namdhari 1+ goals
82%
Namdhari 2+ goals
52%
Namdhari 3+ goals
25%
TRAU 1+ goals
75%
TRAU 2+ goals
40%
TRAU 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Namdhari (draw refunded)
60%
TRAU (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namdhari at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

TRAU away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namdhari attack 1.32 + TRAU defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.74

TRAU attack 1.27 + Namdhari defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Namdhari scores more
46%
level
23%
TRAU scores more
31%

Namdhari at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Namdhari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Namdhari vs TRAU

TRAU beat Namdhari 2-1 in I-League on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Namdhari Stadium in Ludhiana.