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Namdhari vs Mohammedan — I-League 2019

Namdhari
Namdhari
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mohammedan
Mohammedan
12/13/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 10Namdhari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Namdhari31%
×Draw26%
Mohammedan43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namdhari
1.20
Mohammedan
1.44

Mohammedan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 38 away

creates per match

Namdhari
1.32
Mohammedan
1.37

allows per match

Namdhari
1.50
Mohammedan
1.08

finishing

Namdhari+0.00on par
Mohammedan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namdhari ↓

Mohammedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Namdhari or draw
57%
Namdhari or Mohammedan
74%
Draw or Mohammedan
69%

Winning margin

Namdhari wins by 2+
13%
Mohammedan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Namdhari 1+ goals
70%
Namdhari 2+ goals
34%
Namdhari 3+ goals
12%
Mohammedan 1+ goals
76%
Mohammedan 2+ goals
42%
Mohammedan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Namdhari (draw refunded)
42%
Mohammedan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namdhari at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

Mohammedan away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namdhari attack 1.32 + Mohammedan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mohammedan attack 1.37 + Namdhari defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Namdhari scores more
31%
level
26%
Mohammedan scores more
43%

Mohammedan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mohammedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Namdhari 0–1 Mohammedan

Mohammedan beat Namdhari 1-0 in I-League on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Namdhari Stadium in Ludhiana.