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Namdhari vs Inter Kashi — I-League 2019

Namdhari
Namdhari
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Kashi
Inter Kashi
1/13/2025I-LeagueI-League · Round 8Namdhari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Namdhari37%
×Draw25%
Inter Kashi38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namdhari
1.42
Inter Kashi
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

creates per match

Namdhari
1.32
Inter Kashi
1.39

allows per match

Namdhari
1.50
Inter Kashi
1.52

finishing

Namdhari+0.00on par
Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namdhari ↓

Inter Kashi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Namdhari or draw
62%
Namdhari or Inter Kashi
75%
Draw or Inter Kashi
63%

Winning margin

Namdhari wins by 2+
17%
Inter Kashi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Namdhari 1+ goals
76%
Namdhari 2+ goals
41%
Namdhari 3+ goals
17%
Inter Kashi 1+ goals
76%
Inter Kashi 2+ goals
42%
Inter Kashi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Namdhari (draw refunded)
49%
Inter Kashi (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namdhari at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

Inter Kashi away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namdhari attack 1.32 + Inter Kashi defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Inter Kashi attack 1.39 + Namdhari defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Namdhari scores more
37%
level
25%
Inter Kashi scores more
38%

Inter Kashi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Inter Kashi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Namdhari vs Inter Kashi

Namdhari beat Inter Kashi 2-0 in I-League on January 13, 2025.

The match was played at Namdhari Stadium in Ludhiana.