Namdhari 1–2 Delhi FC: Result & Stats | I-League

Namdhari

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Delhi FC

12/5/2023

I-League · Round 9Namdhari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Namdhari40%

×Draw23%

Delhi FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NamdhariExpected goals in this matchDelhi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.57

Namdhari

1.64

Delhi FC

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

1.32

creates per match

1.65

1.50

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Namdhari

1.32

Delhi FC

1.65

allows per match

Namdhari

1.50

Delhi FC

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Namdhari+0.00on par

Delhi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namdhari ↓

Delhi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Namdhari or draw

63%

Namdhari or Delhi FC

77%

Draw or Delhi FC

60%

Winning margin

Namdhari wins by 2+

20%

Delhi FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Namdhari 1+ goals

81%

Namdhari 2+ goals

49%

Namdhari 3+ goals

23%

Delhi FC 1+ goals

79%

Delhi FC 2+ goals

46%

Delhi FC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Namdhari (draw refunded)

52%

Delhi FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namdhari at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

Delhi FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namdhari attack 1.32 + Delhi FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.64

Delhi FC attack 1.65 + Namdhari defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Namdhari scores more

40%

level

23%

Delhi FC scores more

37%

Namdhari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Namdhari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff