Nam Dinh 1–1 Thanh Hóa: Result & Stats | V.League 1

Nam Dinh

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Thanh Hóa

3/8/2024

V.League 1 · Round 13Sân vận động Thiên Trường

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Nam Dinh51%

×Draw26%

Thanh Hóa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nam DinhExpected goals in this matchThanh Hóa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.98

Nam Dinh

1.55

Thanh Hóa

0.98

Nam Dinh creates 58% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 86 away

1.65

creates per match

0.98

0.99

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Nam Dinh

1.65

Thanh Hóa

0.98

allows per match

Nam Dinh

0.99

Thanh Hóa

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nam Dinh+0.00on par

Thanh Hóa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nam Dinh ↓

Thanh Hóa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nam Dinh or draw

76%

Nam Dinh or Thanh Hóa

74%

Draw or Thanh Hóa

49%

Winning margin

Nam Dinh wins by 2+

26%

Thanh Hóa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nam Dinh 1+ goals

79%

Nam Dinh 2+ goals

46%

Nam Dinh 3+ goals

20%

Thanh Hóa 1+ goals

62%

Thanh Hóa 2+ goals

26%

Thanh Hóa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nam Dinh (draw refunded)

68%

Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nam Dinh at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 88 matches

Thanh Hóa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nam Dinh attack 1.65 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Thanh Hóa attack 0.98 + Nam Dinh defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nam Dinh scores more

51%

level

26%

Thanh Hóa scores more

24%

Nam Dinh at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nam Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff