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Nam Dinh vs Selangor — ASEAN Club Championship 2024

Nam Dinh
Nam Dinh
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Selangor
Selangoradvanced
5/13/2026ASEAN Club ChampionshipASEAN Club Championship · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nam Dinh39%
×Draw28%
Selangor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nam Dinh
1.25
Selangor
1.13

Nam Dinh creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Nam Dinh
1.50
Selangor
1.25

allows per match

Nam Dinh
1.00
Selangor
1.00

finishing

Nam Dinh+0.00on par
Selangor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nam Dinh ↓

Selangor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nam Dinh or draw
67%
Nam Dinh or Selangor
72%
Draw or Selangor
61%

Winning margin

Nam Dinh wins by 2+
17%
Selangor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nam Dinh 1+ goals
71%
Nam Dinh 2+ goals
36%
Nam Dinh 3+ goals
13%
Selangor 1+ goals
68%
Selangor 2+ goals
31%
Selangor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nam Dinh (draw refunded)
54%
Selangor (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nam Dinh at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Selangor away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nam Dinh attack 1.50 + Selangor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Selangor attack 1.25 + Nam Dinh defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nam Dinh scores more
39%
level
28%
Selangor scores more
33%

Nam Dinh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nam Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nam Dinh vs Selangor

Selangor beat Nam Dinh 2-0 in ASEAN Club Championship on May 13, 2026.