Nam Dinh 0–1 Gamba Osaka: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Nam Dinh

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gamba Osaka

11/5/2025

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Thien Truong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nam Dinh33%

×Draw24%

Gamba Osaka42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nam DinhExpected goals in this matchGamba Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.58

Nam Dinh

1.37

Gamba Osaka

1.58

Gamba Osaka creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.57

creates per match

2.17

1.00

allows per match

0.17

creates per match

Nam Dinh

2.57

Gamba Osaka

2.17

allows per match

Nam Dinh

1.00

Gamba Osaka

0.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nam Dinh+0.00on par

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nam Dinh ↓

Gamba Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Nam Dinh or draw

58%

Nam Dinh or Gamba Osaka

76%

Draw or Gamba Osaka

67%

Winning margin

Nam Dinh wins by 2+

15%

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Nam Dinh 1+ goals

75%

Nam Dinh 2+ goals

40%

Nam Dinh 3+ goals

16%

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

79%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

47%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Nam Dinh (draw refunded)

44%

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nam Dinh at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Gamba Osaka away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nam Dinh attack 2.57 + Gamba Osaka defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 1.37

Gamba Osaka attack 2.17 + Nam Dinh defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nam Dinh scores more

33%

level

24%

Gamba Osaka scores more

42%

Gamba Osaka at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff