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Nam Dinh vs Binh Duong — Cup 2019

Nam Dinh
Nam Dinh
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Binh Duong
Binh Duongadvanced
1/9/2025CupCup · Round of 16Sân vận động Thiên Trường

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nam Dinh42%
×Draw22%
Binh Duong37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nam Dinh
1.91
Binh Duong
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Nam Dinh
2.25
Binh Duong
1.56

allows per match

Nam Dinh
2.00
Binh Duong
1.56

finishing

Nam Dinh+0.00on par
Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nam Dinh ↓

Binh Duong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Nam Dinh or draw
63%
Nam Dinh or Binh Duong
78%
Draw or Binh Duong
58%

Winning margin

Nam Dinh wins by 2+
23%
Binh Duong wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Nam Dinh 1+ goals
85%
Nam Dinh 2+ goals
57%
Nam Dinh 3+ goals
30%
Binh Duong 1+ goals
83%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
53%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Nam Dinh (draw refunded)
53%
Binh Duong (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nam Dinh at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nam Dinh attack 2.25 + Binh Duong defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.91

Binh Duong attack 1.56 + Nam Dinh defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nam Dinh scores more
42%
level
22%
Binh Duong scores more
37%

Nam Dinh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nam Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nam Dinh vs Binh Duong

Nam Dinh and Binh Duong drew 1-1 in Cup on January 9, 2025.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thiên Trường in Nam Dinh.