Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nakuru AllStars vs Nairobi Stima — Super League 2018

Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
FT
1 – 1
Nairobi Stima
Nairobi Stima
5/2/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nakuru AllStars25%
×Draw25%
Nairobi Stima50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakuru AllStars
1.03
Nairobi Stima
1.59

Nairobi Stima creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Nakuru AllStars
0.75
Nairobi Stima
1.69

allows per match

Nakuru AllStars
1.50
Nairobi Stima
1.31

finishing

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par
Nairobi Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakuru AllStars ↓

Nairobi Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nakuru AllStars or draw
50%
Nakuru AllStars or Nairobi Stima
75%
Draw or Nairobi Stima
75%

Winning margin

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
9%
Nairobi Stima wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
64%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
28%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
9%
Nairobi Stima 1+ goals
80%
Nairobi Stima 2+ goals
47%
Nairobi Stima 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
33%
Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakuru AllStars at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Nairobi Stima away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.75 + Nairobi Stima defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nairobi Stima attack 1.69 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nakuru AllStars scores more
25%
level
25%
Nairobi Stima scores more
50%

Nairobi Stima at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nairobi Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakuru AllStars vs Nairobi Stima

Nakuru AllStars and Nairobi Stima drew 1-1 in Super League on May 2, 2018.