Nakuru AllStars 1–1 Kibera Black Stars

Nakuru AllStars

FT

1 – 1

Kibera Black Stars

7/6/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nakuru AllStars32%

×Draw29%

Kibera Black Stars39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakuru AllStarsExpected goals in this matchKibera Black Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.19

Nakuru AllStars

1.06

Kibera Black Stars

1.19

Kibera Black Stars creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

0.82

creates per match

0.96

1.41

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Nakuru AllStars

0.82

Kibera Black Stars

0.96

allows per match

Nakuru AllStars

1.41

Kibera Black Stars

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakuru AllStars ↓

Kibera Black Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nakuru AllStars or draw

61%

Nakuru AllStars or Kibera Black Stars

71%

Draw or Kibera Black Stars

68%

Winning margin

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+

13%

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals

65%

Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals

29%

Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals

9%

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals

70%

Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals

33%

Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)

45%

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakuru AllStars at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.82 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.96 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nakuru AllStars scores more

32%

level

29%

Kibera Black Stars scores more

39%

Kibera Black Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff