Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nakuru AllStars vs Kangemi All Stars — Super League 2018

Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
FT
0 – 2
Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
2/17/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nakuru AllStars36%
×Draw27%
Kangemi All Stars37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakuru AllStars
1.23
Kangemi All Stars
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nakuru AllStars
0.75
Kangemi All Stars
1.00

allows per match

Nakuru AllStars
1.50
Kangemi All Stars
1.72

finishing

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par
Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakuru AllStars ↓

Kangemi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nakuru AllStars or draw
63%
Nakuru AllStars or Kangemi All Stars
73%
Draw or Kangemi All Stars
64%

Winning margin

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
15%
Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
71%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
35%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
13%
Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
71%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
36%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
49%
Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakuru AllStars at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Kangemi All Stars away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.75 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.00 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nakuru AllStars scores more
36%
level
27%
Kangemi All Stars scores more
37%

Kangemi All Stars at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kangemi All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nakuru AllStars 0–2 Kangemi All Stars

Kangemi All Stars beat Nakuru AllStars 2-0 in Super League on February 17, 2018.