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Nakumatt vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Nakumatt
Nakumatt
FT
1 – 1
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
7/15/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 23Camp Toyoyo (Nairobi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Nakumatt41%
×Draw23%
Zoo Kericho36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakumatt
1.69
Zoo Kericho
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

creates per match

Nakumatt
1.46
Zoo Kericho
0.91

allows per match

Nakumatt
2.23
Zoo Kericho
1.92

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw
64%
Nakumatt or Zoo Kericho
77%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
59%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+
21%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals
82%
Nakumatt 2+ goals
50%
Nakumatt 3+ goals
24%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
79%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
46%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)
53%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.46 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

Zoo Kericho attack 0.91 + Nakumatt defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nakumatt scores more
41%
level
23%
Zoo Kericho scores more
36%

Nakumatt at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nakumatt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Nakumatt 1–1 Zoo Kericho

Nakumatt and Zoo Kericho drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on July 15, 2018.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo (Nairobi).