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Nakumatt vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Nakumatt
Nakumatt
FT
3 – 0
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
6/6/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 18Camp Toyoyo (Nairobi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nakumatt37%
×Draw25%
Wazito FC38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakumatt
1.44
Wazito FC
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 76 away

creates per match

Nakumatt
1.42
Wazito FC
0.76

allows per match

Nakumatt
2.17
Wazito FC
1.47

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw
62%
Nakumatt or Wazito FC
75%
Draw or Wazito FC
63%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+
17%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals
76%
Nakumatt 2+ goals
42%
Nakumatt 3+ goals
18%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
77%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
43%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)
49%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.17 · 36 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.42 + Wazito FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Wazito FC attack 0.76 + Nakumatt defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nakumatt scores more
37%
level
25%
Wazito FC scores more
38%

Wazito FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wazito FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakumatt vs Wazito FC

Nakumatt beat Wazito FC 3-0 in FKF Premier League on June 6, 2018.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo (Nairobi).