Nakumatt 0–2 Vihiga United FC: Result & Stats

Nakumatt

FT

0 – 2

Vihiga United FC

10/7/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 34Ruaraka Stadium (Nairobi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nakumatt34%

×Draw25%

Vihiga United FC41%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NakumattExpected goals in this matchVihiga United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.46

Nakumatt

1.30

Vihiga United FC

1.46

Vihiga United FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 51 away

1.43

creates per match

0.78

2.14

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Nakumatt

1.43

Vihiga United FC

0.78

allows per match

Nakumatt

2.14

Vihiga United FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Vihiga United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw

59%

Nakumatt or Vihiga United FC

75%

Draw or Vihiga United FC

66%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+

15%

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals

73%

Nakumatt 2+ goals

37%

Nakumatt 3+ goals

14%

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals

77%

Vihiga United FC 2+ goals

43%

Vihiga United FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)

45%

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.43 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + Nakumatt defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nakumatt scores more

34%

level

25%

Vihiga United FC scores more

41%

Vihiga United FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vihiga United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff