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Nakumatt vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

Nakumatt
Nakumatt
FT
2 – 1
Tusker
Tusker
5/20/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 16Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nakumatt27%
×Draw24%
Tusker49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakumatt
1.22
Tusker
1.74

Tusker creates 43% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 145 away

creates per match

Nakumatt
1.43
Tusker
1.34

allows per match

Nakumatt
2.14
Tusker
1.01

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw
51%
Nakumatt or Tusker
76%
Draw or Tusker
73%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+
11%
Tusker wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals
70%
Nakumatt 2+ goals
34%
Nakumatt 3+ goals
12%
Tusker 1+ goals
82%
Tusker 2+ goals
52%
Tusker 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)
35%
Tusker (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.01 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.43 + Tusker defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tusker attack 1.34 + Nakumatt defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nakumatt scores more
27%
level
24%
Tusker scores more
49%

Tusker at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakumatt vs Tusker

Nakumatt beat Tusker 2-1 in FKF Premier League on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).