Nakumatt 1–6 Nzoia Sugar: Result & Stats

Nakumatt

FT

1 – 6

Nzoia Sugar

4/7/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 21Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nakumatt33%

×Draw24%

Nzoia Sugar42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NakumattExpected goals in this matchNzoia Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.58

Nakumatt

1.38

Nzoia Sugar

1.58

Nzoia Sugar creates 14% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 110 away

1.43

creates per match

1.02

2.14

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Nakumatt

1.43

Nzoia Sugar

1.02

allows per match

Nakumatt

2.14

Nzoia Sugar

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Nzoia Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw

58%

Nakumatt or Nzoia Sugar

76%

Draw or Nzoia Sugar

67%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+

15%

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals

75%

Nakumatt 2+ goals

40%

Nakumatt 3+ goals

16%

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals

79%

Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals

47%

Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)

44%

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.33 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.43 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.02 + Nakumatt defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nakumatt scores more

33%

level

24%

Nzoia Sugar scores more

42%

Nzoia Sugar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nzoia Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff