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Nakumatt vs KCB — FKF Premier League 2018

Nakumatt
Nakumatt
FT
0 – 2
KCB
KCB
2/11/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 13Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nakumatt27%
×Draw25%
KCB48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakumatt
1.15
KCB
1.63

KCB creates 42% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 136 away

creates per match

Nakumatt
1.43
KCB
1.12

allows per match

Nakumatt
2.14
KCB
0.86

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par
KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

KCB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw
52%
Nakumatt or KCB
75%
Draw or KCB
73%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+
11%
KCB wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals
68%
Nakumatt 2+ goals
32%
Nakumatt 3+ goals
11%
KCB 1+ goals
80%
KCB 2+ goals
48%
KCB 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)
36%
KCB (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

KCB away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.86 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.43 + KCB defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

KCB attack 1.12 + Nakumatt defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nakumatt scores more
27%
level
25%
KCB scores more
48%

KCB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Nakumatt 0–2 KCB

KCB beat Nakumatt 2-0 in FKF Premier League on February 11, 2019.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).