Nakumatt 2–2 GOR Mahia: Result & Stats

Nakumatt

FT

2 – 2

GOR Mahia

8/4/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 25Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nakumatt23%

×Draw23%

GOR Mahia54%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NakumattExpected goals in this matchGOR Mahia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.81

Nakumatt

1.11

GOR Mahia

1.81

GOR Mahia creates 63% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 143 away

1.43

creates per match

1.49

2.14

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Nakumatt

1.43

GOR Mahia

1.49

allows per match

Nakumatt

2.14

GOR Mahia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

GOR Mahia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw

46%

Nakumatt or GOR Mahia

77%

Draw or GOR Mahia

77%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+

9%

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals

67%

Nakumatt 2+ goals

30%

Nakumatt 3+ goals

10%

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

84%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

54%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)

30%

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.43 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Nakumatt defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nakumatt scores more

23%

level

23%

GOR Mahia scores more

54%

GOR Mahia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff