Nakumatt 4–3 Chemelil Sugar: Result & Stats

Nakumatt

FT

4 – 3

Chemelil Sugar

4/17/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 24Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nakumatt39%

×Draw25%

Chemelil Sugar36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NakumattExpected goals in this matchChemelil Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.35

Nakumatt

1.42

Chemelil Sugar

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 55 away

1.43

creates per match

0.56

2.14

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Nakumatt

1.43

Chemelil Sugar

0.56

allows per match

Nakumatt

2.14

Chemelil Sugar

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Chemelil Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw

64%

Nakumatt or Chemelil Sugar

75%

Draw or Chemelil Sugar

61%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+

18%

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals

76%

Nakumatt 2+ goals

41%

Nakumatt 3+ goals

17%

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals

74%

Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals

39%

Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)

52%

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.43 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.56 + Nakumatt defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nakumatt scores more

39%

level

25%

Chemelil Sugar scores more

36%

Nakumatt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nakumatt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff